I normally dont comment but I gotta say the KO ad from Argentina is spot on! kinda made me tear up a little. Family gives life meaning. Love your letter and keep up the "bullshit"! :)
I had to look up what TINA/TARA (There Is No Alternative/There Are Real Alternatives$ was on the debt/equity chart. The questions this chart brings up are: A. What are the other assets allocations (the chart lines don’t amount to 100%). B. How does that fit with your semi-predication of a 6000 S&P by EOY?
Treasury General Account and China easing should get us there. I'm thinking we hit 5500, drop back to 5000, and then just bull rush up.
I know it doesn't make sense on the surface, but there is so much cash on the sideline that it screams reallocation to equities. The Fed did this. I'm not making this prediction because I think it's rational. I'm doing it because there is just too much paper currency floating around.
This is why I'm sticking in conservative names because they are not overvalued, but they can catch momentum. It goes until it breaks.
I checked TX when you first mentioned it. It seems strange to pick a stock that moves in Tandem with the SPY, even if it has 1.63 beta. Can’t you just use leveraged ETF like SSO for reduced single stock risk?
By the way, as a not too musical person, my favorite guitarist is Jesse Cook.
Investors could do the leveraged thing, and I like those. But my publisher won't let me go down that road. When we're green, SPXL... and red SPXS.
The only problem with the way I measure things is that it's really hard to pick the bottom. That's why the RSI and MFI together are as close as I can get to finding a liquidity bottom.
42 cents on the Graham dollar. It’s not supposed to make sense. My argument is that that last of the gains in this liquidity cycle will be in the things that matter. Then, punched… then bailout.
This is worth $80. It’s not a bad company. It’s really stupidly cheap. It’s just that south america is a mess, and if i’m gonna hedge against the U.S. fiscal situation, I’d focus on real assets.
Ternium is real assets. It’s like TS. Underperforming. It will work out eventually.
Timing emerging markets is impossible. But you want the names that are trading for 50 cents on the dollar… like Posco did.
Blues and jazz are so intermixed it’s hard to tell them apart sometimes. SRV was as unique in his own way as Wes wad in his. It’s all in how the notes strike the soul of the listener. Both those cats hit my soul quite meaningfully in their own special way. They are in every note I play no matter how trivial my renditions may be. I hope to jam with them someday - humbly in the hereafter.
I normally dont comment but I gotta say the KO ad from Argentina is spot on! kinda made me tear up a little. Family gives life meaning. Love your letter and keep up the "bullshit"! :)
I appreciate it!
Garrett keep doing what you're doing. Loving every post and making money.
I had to look up what TINA/TARA (There Is No Alternative/There Are Real Alternatives$ was on the debt/equity chart. The questions this chart brings up are: A. What are the other assets allocations (the chart lines don’t amount to 100%). B. How does that fit with your semi-predication of a 6000 S&P by EOY?
I'm at 6k by May next year.
Treasury General Account and China easing should get us there. I'm thinking we hit 5500, drop back to 5000, and then just bull rush up.
I know it doesn't make sense on the surface, but there is so much cash on the sideline that it screams reallocation to equities. The Fed did this. I'm not making this prediction because I think it's rational. I'm doing it because there is just too much paper currency floating around.
This is why I'm sticking in conservative names because they are not overvalued, but they can catch momentum. It goes until it breaks.
It will break. But not yet.
I'm not bragging because I think I'm a good stock picker. We're up 17% on the year, and beating the doors off the SPY. I'm doing it pure defensively.
It's nice to kick the market in the stomach and not have to own any of the index stuff.
I made one mistake this year on ALTM. That's what makes me mad. That I went with that over ADM. But we look ahead. We're still beating the market.
And TX is probably the June pick...
I checked TX when you first mentioned it. It seems strange to pick a stock that moves in Tandem with the SPY, even if it has 1.63 beta. Can’t you just use leveraged ETF like SSO for reduced single stock risk?
By the way, as a not too musical person, my favorite guitarist is Jesse Cook.
Investors could do the leveraged thing, and I like those. But my publisher won't let me go down that road. When we're green, SPXL... and red SPXS.
The only problem with the way I measure things is that it's really hard to pick the bottom. That's why the RSI and MFI together are as close as I can get to finding a liquidity bottom.
42 cents on the Graham dollar. It’s not supposed to make sense. My argument is that that last of the gains in this liquidity cycle will be in the things that matter. Then, punched… then bailout.
This is worth $80. It’s not a bad company. It’s really stupidly cheap. It’s just that south america is a mess, and if i’m gonna hedge against the U.S. fiscal situation, I’d focus on real assets.
Ternium is real assets. It’s like TS. Underperforming. It will work out eventually.
Timing emerging markets is impossible. But you want the names that are trading for 50 cents on the dollar… like Posco did.
Hendrix was a true original with no equal. But you can see a lot of Wes Montgomery (moment of silence please) in his playing. I’m just saying.
My No. 2 after Vaughan.
F blues into B flat 7.
I listen to Round Midnight at least once a week.
Blues and jazz are so intermixed it’s hard to tell them apart sometimes. SRV was as unique in his own way as Wes wad in his. It’s all in how the notes strike the soul of the listener. Both those cats hit my soul quite meaningfully in their own special way. They are in every note I play no matter how trivial my renditions may be. I hope to jam with them someday - humbly in the hereafter.