It's a very important day in my life... and in financial history. So, I've put together this urgent broadcast for everyone... and I mean everyone. After 16 years today... my worldview is shaped...
I am looking forward to continue to receive your emails. I learned a lot today with your video. My birthday is tomorrow, thanks for your gift. I can’t wait to turn this learning into some good trades in the short future.
Please do everything you can to protect what’s yours, I am very sad for your friend and don’t want this to happen to you. You spent the time and $ to educate yourself, rip the rewards and protect all the effort you put in.
I wish you continued success and good health for you and your family.
Garrett, a very value-dense presentation. I'm sure you're busy, but a few questions on some things your raised.
1. I've heard the argument that the global liquidity "baton" has been passed from monetary to fiscal. In other words, it's not Powell but Yellen doing the most for global liquidity. Do you think this is broadly correct, and if so, what mechanisms are being pulled?
2. You seem to suggest that gold is more appropriate as a barometer of monetary devaluation rather than an investment asset influenced by the usual things (falling dollar, negative real rates, etc). Is this a correct interpretation? Gold's rally in the face of very positive real rates seems to suggest something is up.
3. AIG as a "policy pivot" buy makes sense. Has the trade also worked in reverse? In other words, does the stock fall near the top of the liquidity cycles you shared in part 1? Presumably so, as the 2020 collapse might suggest. But curious if you had an opinion.
1) In the U.S. it has been. But the bulk of liquidity is driven by non-government entities. The Fed will start to take that baton back from Treasury in the future. Yellen engaged in her own financial engineering over the last year and I'm worried that Treasury policy will get politicized moving forward.
2) Gold demand has been excessive since central banks over the last two years. We saw the strongest buying pattern since before 1971 from central banks in Q3 of last year, if I recall correctly. But there has been MASSIVE devaluation of fiat currencies against gold in the last year as well. As debt levels climb, gold has been a significant winner. I think it's fair to argue that gold provides a hedge against the size of the money supply - as there is a direct causal relationship between the two. But I would argue that there is great value in strong companies with wide moats, cash flow, and high F scores. It will be a bit more volatile with time, but it will likely benefit more than gold, which isn't as liquid.
3) So, AIG isn't a stock to short during liquidity cycles. It's a short when our signal goes negative, which isn't CYCLE-related. Cycles are five to six years, trough to trough. Liquidity events - or these plumbing hiccups - come and go. April and August were examples. I would say that based on the price movement, yes, but the problem with shorting is that coordination can quickly fuel a rebound and force a short squeeze. That's not for me... but if people figure out a way to perfect it on their own or toy and test with it, it may be a good idea to try.
Wonderful Garrett, so good to see you back on screen again. I sense the Baldwin Phoenix rising yes. Densely packed for a late starter like me, a Masters in finance indeed. Thank you.
Garrett: thank you!
Clear, concise, to the point!
You are always a good enlightening read.
I am looking forward to continue to receive your emails. I learned a lot today with your video. My birthday is tomorrow, thanks for your gift. I can’t wait to turn this learning into some good trades in the short future.
Please do everything you can to protect what’s yours, I am very sad for your friend and don’t want this to happen to you. You spent the time and $ to educate yourself, rip the rewards and protect all the effort you put in.
I wish you continued success and good health for you and your family.
Miguel Moreno
Excellent presentation Garrett. Thank you!
Please keep this up so we can view it again later.
Is it possible to generate a transcript?
That was awesome 👏
Great presentation Garrett! Just like when you were at Money Map, you are the one person I could listen to for hours!
Garrett, a very value-dense presentation. I'm sure you're busy, but a few questions on some things your raised.
1. I've heard the argument that the global liquidity "baton" has been passed from monetary to fiscal. In other words, it's not Powell but Yellen doing the most for global liquidity. Do you think this is broadly correct, and if so, what mechanisms are being pulled?
2. You seem to suggest that gold is more appropriate as a barometer of monetary devaluation rather than an investment asset influenced by the usual things (falling dollar, negative real rates, etc). Is this a correct interpretation? Gold's rally in the face of very positive real rates seems to suggest something is up.
3. AIG as a "policy pivot" buy makes sense. Has the trade also worked in reverse? In other words, does the stock fall near the top of the liquidity cycles you shared in part 1? Presumably so, as the 2020 collapse might suggest. But curious if you had an opinion.
1) In the U.S. it has been. But the bulk of liquidity is driven by non-government entities. The Fed will start to take that baton back from Treasury in the future. Yellen engaged in her own financial engineering over the last year and I'm worried that Treasury policy will get politicized moving forward.
2) Gold demand has been excessive since central banks over the last two years. We saw the strongest buying pattern since before 1971 from central banks in Q3 of last year, if I recall correctly. But there has been MASSIVE devaluation of fiat currencies against gold in the last year as well. As debt levels climb, gold has been a significant winner. I think it's fair to argue that gold provides a hedge against the size of the money supply - as there is a direct causal relationship between the two. But I would argue that there is great value in strong companies with wide moats, cash flow, and high F scores. It will be a bit more volatile with time, but it will likely benefit more than gold, which isn't as liquid.
3) So, AIG isn't a stock to short during liquidity cycles. It's a short when our signal goes negative, which isn't CYCLE-related. Cycles are five to six years, trough to trough. Liquidity events - or these plumbing hiccups - come and go. April and August were examples. I would say that based on the price movement, yes, but the problem with shorting is that coordination can quickly fuel a rebound and force a short squeeze. That's not for me... but if people figure out a way to perfect it on their own or toy and test with it, it may be a good idea to try.
Appreciate the thorough reply.
Wonderful Garrett, so good to see you back on screen again. I sense the Baldwin Phoenix rising yes. Densely packed for a late starter like me, a Masters in finance indeed. Thank you.
Astounding presentation, many thanks for sharing your views and years of accumulated research. Your information is invaluable!
Excellent presentation and explanation! Thank you!
Not a bad "mike drop" moment. Still waiting for your book to come out.
Good job GB, it's always better when you communicate from across the desk.
PR had a buy in from a director. Remember, it's better to get paid to wait. I hope all is well with your family,
Good job GB, it's always better when you communicate from across the desk.
PR had a buy in from a director. Remember, it's better to get paid to wait. I hope all is well with your family,