Republic: 2:35 and After

It's been a very predictable pattern. It'll get worse before it gets better.

Dear Fellow Expat:

Well, it happened again. Follow the market at 2:35… and then get out of the way at 3 pm. This has been a very reliable trade, as the lower volumes makes it solid conditions for the funds to cover shorts. But then… like clock work - the institutions use this pop to sell.

This has happened in almost every Fed meeting since 2022.

Basic observations… I think that it didn’t matter what Powell said.

The Fed is so far behind the curve on inflation that we’re now going to see a little bit of price discovery. We’re still largely on the sidelines. The bigger issue is whether we’ll see oil prices find a bottom in the next few days. I’ve advised looking at the oversold metrics around the NRGU and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

It looks like oil is about to go on sale. Be ready and patient. This is a FANTASTIC time to shop for oil stocks in a stagnating economy.

Finally, apologies. I’ve been really out of pocket today due to an internet issue. I’m going to send an email tonight about our lat…