Inflation Could Heat Up More... And Drive Profit Margins Higher During Earnings...

People keep saying that inflation might collapse for June. Okay... But what's next?

An independent and profitable state of mind.

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Dear Fellow Expat,

With weakening momentum in the market, we head into the final week of the first half of 2023.

Markets have rebounded from the lows of October and December 2022 – aided by remarkable central banking aid and expanded economic conditions.

As we put a fork in the first half, let’s reflect on a few key charts and explain their importance today…

Then we’ll discuss why the music will stop for equities soon…

One Narrative Bests Another One

We had one negative momentum event in the first half of 2023 – down from three in the first half of 2022. Bank of America noted this week that the unexpected event of the first six months was “Artificial Intelligence” and not Silicon Valley Bank.

I’d argue something lateral – largely the result of central bank policy and how it helps fuel risk-off behavior after short-term crises. This year, venture capital collapsed, and higher rates crushed Big Tech’s competition. But the Fed bac…